7 Months Later, Was Bitcoin Half Priced in?

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin supply is cut in half each year to curb price inflation and keep BTC short.
  • The latest halving is probably just one of many factors that prompted recent price action.
  • Most investors in the financial markets have not considered halving Bitcoin.

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Every four years, Bitcoin supply is halved, making the asset twice as rare.

While theories say that price should therefore double, Bitcoin analyst Nic Carter recently noted that probable halving did not have a meaningful effect on price action.

Carter’s statement is likely to simplify what remains a complex economic mechanism embedded in the network. The essence of the issue is whether Bitcoin is an efficient market, one that responds in real time to developments in the news and broader financial markets.

BTC was likely to be inefficient in its infancy when arbitration opportunities between different fiat currencies and Bitcoin were possible.

Now, after its third halving event, the asset has become a very different beast.

Opposing Theories on Bitcoin Halvings

The efficient market assumption holds that Bitcoin’s “halves” are “priced in,” which means that the market has predicted the events well in advance and considered each one-half the price of Bitcoin. Although the price rose after halving 2012 and 2016, two halves do not provide enough data to measure trend, and it will take decades to accurately map the effect of halves on price.

On the other hand, the stock-to-flow the model for Bitcoin shortage holds that the diminished supply of Bitcoin is guaranteed to increase the price. The model specifies how many years it would take to generate the current supply of Bitcoin at the current rate of production, and the conclusion is that Bitcoin could surpass $ 100,000 by the end of 2021.

The model was popularized by Plan B on Twitter backed by commentators like Dan Held, formerly head of Kraken and Uber growth.

Held has even gone on to say that Bitcoin could go as high as $ 1 million.

Speaking to Crypto Briefing, Held noted that the broader financial markets have not priced at events such as halving Bitcoin, referring to the fact that many applicants are not yet aware of the event.

“Simply put, 99% of investors have never really taken it seriously,” said Held.

BTC Big Driver Unexpected Events

Although Bitcoin has peaked recently always high, the consensus remains that the latest halving has not given Bitcoin the much needed lift.

Bitcoin economist and analyst Alex Kruger He spoke to Crypto Briefing, noting that likely halves are not as big a driver as stock-flow fans believe, citing other factors at work in the markets.

The discussion also redefines what “pricing in” means.

Of course, the creation of new Bitcoin is reducing in half issues. But “there are many other variables as well,” said Kruger, adding that “the main variables behind this bull run are institutional demand and high net worth, and Paypal.”

Kruger believes that while “halving 2020 has driven up the price before a coronavirus hit” to some extent, “subsequent halves will have less of an impact.”

According to this theory, unexpected events like the Paul Tudor Jones memo, which revealed that the billionaire hedge fund manager had between 1 – 2% of his assets in Bitcoin, were far more significant to the bull run than the halving latest.

Events like the US Presidential Elections likely to play a role as well.

In conclusion, the halving discussion is rushing forward.

There is simply not enough data for such a new asset class to identify the effects of particular events. But if one wants to follow the stock-to-flow model, and BTC reaches $ 100,000 by the end of next year, that may settle the issue completely.

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